![]() What you are looking at here is the temp profile for the strat at about 50mb or approx 63,000 feet above sea level. I want you to pretend you are an alien hovering high above earth centered over the north pole looking down and this is what you see. How exactly does a strat warm event help? This illustration is somewhat oversimplified but gets the main point across. That's right Mugsy had been talking about this quite a bit a few couple of weeks ago, and its effects are clearly going to help us here. Reason? the Stratospheric warming that has occurred. ![]() Up until now with the aforementioned pattern entrenched, La Nina base state and MJO in warm phases, anything that has resembled a 50/50 low in the past had been easily booted as our system amplified over the central CONUS an the SE ridge flexed. ![]() Also note the Reds to the north(our -NAO). If you look at the Anomaly map notice just how green the colors are in the center. One at a time though.ģ) Take a quick look back at the last two maps and notice the big circle to our NE. BUT hold on because even though the SOI isnt ideal there are afew other big picture items that are likely to allow this to happen for Monday AND maybe even allow for the potential for the March 3rd-4th come to fruition as well. My concern with this would be that if nothing else changed then the prev atmospheric forcing pattern that has been entrenched all winter would settle back in allowing this Mondays potential to trend right back to the GL cutter soln. Unfortunately the SOI has trended back into positive territory over the past 3 days after only spending 3 days in the negative. Combined with the MJO prev running through warm phases 3-4-5-6, this base state of the atmosphere typically allows any energy coming out of the SW CONUS to amplify over the center of the country which pumps the SE ridge, allowing the energy to bully its way into the great lakes flooding the entire NE region with warm air ahead of our systems. Reason for this is that all winter it has remained in mod positive territory which is a La Nina base state. ![]() Notice these differences)Ģ) Point two: If you have been following along this past week I have wanted to see the SOI remain negative through the weekend. All models have trended to this soln however, there are still subtle differences to just how far south and how strong and concentrated vs more strung out is it between models. South of there will struggle.ġ) We have needed to see our 500mb energy stay south of Long Island. I'm pretty confident we are going to see accumulation snow Monday night into Tuesday morning if you live north of, draw a line SW to NE, between say Trenton NJ to Sandy hook out to Montauk point. ![]()
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